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Investment Strategy & Research

Big Little Tariffs 

May 20, 2024

IS Brief Bull Bear

Executive Summary 

  • The Biden administration’s announcement last week of new tariffs targeting China represent a relatively surgical approach with only a limited expected economic impact.
  • This stands in contrast to Trump’s proposal for blanket tariffs on imports, which could have a more material economic impact.
  • Investors should remain alert to potential market volatility associated with trade policy uncertainty.

 

IS Brief Chart 1 2024-05-20

  • The Biden administration announced a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese imports of batteries, metals, medical supplies, electric vehicles and other goods.
  • The scope of goods impacted by the tariffs is relatively small, affecting only $19 billion of imported goods with a total tariff price tag of 0.01% of GDP.

IS Brief Chart 2 2024-05-20

  • The new round of tariffs underscores a unique political alignment regarding confronting China’s trade practices, but also highlights key differences in approach. 
  • The Trump administration’s tariffs implemented from 2018 to 2020 were a modest headwind to economic growth, but proposals made on the campaign trail appear to be of larger magnitude. 
  • Trump’s proposed tariffs would likely be larger in scope than those announced by Biden, but would likely be used to fund key tax cut extensions. 

 

This material is intended to review matters of possible interest to Glenmede Trust Company clients and friends and is not intended as personalized investment advice. When provided to a client, advice is based on the client’s unique circumstances and may differ substantially from any general recommendations, suggestions or other considerations included in this material. Any opinions, recommendations, expectations or projections herein are based on information available at the time of publication and may change thereafter. Information obtained from third-party sources is assumed to be reliable but may not be independently verified, and the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed. Outcomes (including performance) may differ materially from any expectations and projections noted herein due to various risks and uncertainties. Any reference to risk management or risk control does not imply that risk can be eliminated. All investments have risk. Clients are encouraged to discuss any matter discussed herein with their Glenmede representative.

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