Investment Strategy Brief
Crossing the Election Finish Line
November 3, 2024
Executive Summary
- The election remains contingent on a handful of key battleground states, where polls remain well within the typical margin of error.
- While delays and election disputes may arise, there are several key deadlines before a President is sworn in on Inauguration Day.
- Volatility is likely surrounding Election Day but may stabilize as the results become final.
- The presidential election may lead to near-term uncertainty, but that uncertainty should fade as the results are reported.
The 2024 Presidential Election remains contingent on a handful of key battleground states
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%202024-11-04.png?width=1945&height=2000&name=IS%20Brief%20Chart%201%20(Right%20Panel)%202024-11-04.png "IS Brief Chart 1 (Right Panel) 2024-11-04")
Shown in the left panel are implied election probabilities based on data from online betting sites BetOnline, Betfair, Bovada, Bwin, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets, aggregated by RealClearPolitics. References to any betting sites and the use of associated data in no way should be interpreted as an endorsement or recommendation of use by Glenmede. Shown in the right panel are averages of recent state polls as compiled by RealClearPolitics. Actual results may differ materially from implied probabilities or expectations. Probabilities and polling information shown are not the opinions of Glenmede and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
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The implied probabilities from betting markets for the next occupant of the White House remain quite volatile in the lead-up to Election Day.
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Polling averages in key swing states remain well within the margin of error, suggesting the election remains close.
A more deliberate vote count in closely contested battleground states may prolong results
Data shown outline a timeline following the 2024 Election on November 5th for several key battleground states, including when the states were called in the 2020 election and state certification deadlines as mandated by respective state law. An election is considered certified by the state when a review is completed by election officials, boards of canvassers and/or individuals designated by law to do so.
- Vote counting procedures differ across the key battlegrounds due to the discretion given the states to set their own election protocols.
- For example, Arizona begins processing and counting mail-in ballots upon receipt, whereas Pennsylvania only begins that sequence the morning of Election Day.
There are a number of key dates before a President must be sworn in on Inauguration Day
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Some key deadlines occur in the middle of December, when states officially appoint their electors (via certificate of ascertainment) and those electors cast their votes in their respective states.
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After the new session of Congress begins shortly after the new year, one of the first responsibilities of the legislature will be to count the electoral votes ahead of the January 20th Inauguration Day.
Pronounced volatility around Election Day is not unusual
Data shown are the average values of the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX) during each presidential election year from 1990 to 2020, indexed to 100 on Election Day. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
- Historically, it is quite normal to see volatility pick up around Election Day and ultimately settle out once the results become clear.
- That may be especially the case this year, as the major presidential candidates have very different visions for economically sensitive issues like taxes and tariffs.
For more in-depth information on this topic, please reach out to your Glenmede Relationship Manager.
This material is intended to review matters of possible interest to Glenmede Trust Company clients and friends and is not intended as personalized investment advice. When provided to a client, advice is based on the client’s unique circumstances and may differ substantially from any general recommendations, suggestions or other considerations included in this material. Any opinions, recommendations, expectations or projections herein are based on information available at the time of publication and may change thereafter. Information obtained from third-party sources is assumed to be reliable but may not be independently verified, and the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed. Outcomes (including performance) may differ materially from any expectations and projections noted herein due to various risks and uncertainties. Any reference to risk management or risk control does not imply that risk can be eliminated. All investments have risk. Clients are encouraged to discuss any matter discussed herein with their Glenmede representative.
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