Executive Summary 

• Equity issuance is recovering, driven by initial public offerings (IPOs) from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, which are expected to break records in valuation and size.

• Adjusted for the historical size of the equity market, this IPO surge is still notable but less groundbreaking.

• Some but not all index providers have shifted their rules to accommodate inclusion of these high-profile IPOs.

• Publicly available shares for these IPOs likely will grow gradually over time as lockups expire.

• Despite record-setting headlines, mega cap IPOs are likely to impact broad equity indices only gradually over the next few years. 

A select group of larger IPOs is expected to drive total capital raised to new highs

Shown on the left is the annual number of U.S. IPOs. The shaded blue bar represents the full-year total for 2026 based on actual and projected issuance. Shown on the right is the total capital raised from these same IPOs, with the shaded green bar representing an estimate for full-year 2026 capital raised based on actual and projected issuance. The 2026 capital-raise estimate is illustrative and subject to uncertainty. Actual IPO activity and capital raised may differ materially due to changes in market conditions, investor demand, deal timing, or the size of future offerings.

•  The number of IPO deals remains relatively moderate, but total capital raised is projected to rise sharply in 2026, highlighting a growing concentration in larger offerings.

• This divergence between deal volume and proceeds reflects a market environment where a handful of mega cap IPOs are expected to account for a disproportionate share of issuance activity. 

IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are expected to break records on both valuation and size

Shown are the sizes of select historical and projected initial public offerings (IPOs), measured by market capitalization and total capital raised. Figures for Anthropic and OpenAI are estimates based on publicly reported expected valuations and projected offering sizes. The projections are illustrative and subject to uncertainty, as actual IPO valuations, offering sizes, and timing may differ materially from expectations. Historical IPOs are shown for comparison purposes only and are not indicative of future results. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. References to individual stocks should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

•  IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI stand out relative to historical offerings, with valuations and deal sizes that should rank among the largest on record.

• This dynamic supports the broader theme of fewer but larger deals driving overall issuance, with mega cap listings accounting for a disproportionate share of capital raised. 

Adjusted for the historical size of the equity market, this IPO surge is still notable but less groundbreaking

Shown is the annual number of U.S. IPO proceeds as a percentage of Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The shaded bar represents 2026 year-to-date data and includes announced and pending deals. Historical issuance activity is shown for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as a forecast of future issuance trends. The 2026 capital-raise estimate is illustrative and subject to uncertainty. Actual IPO activity and capital raised may differ materially due to changes in market conditions, investor demand, deal timing, or the size of future offerings.

•  When measured relative to the total size of the equity market, the recent pickup in IPO activity appears less extreme than headline dollar figures suggest, with current issuance still below the peaks seen in the late 1990s.

• While IPO activity is clearly recovering in 2026, it remains more normal in a historical context, suggesting the current cycle is notable but not unprecedented. 

Some but not all index providers have shifted their rules to accommodate inclusion of these high-profile IPOs

•  Recent rule changes allow large IPOs to be incorporated more quickly into the Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100, significantly shortening the time between listing and index inclusion.

• In contrast, the S&P 500 maintained stricter eligibility criteria, including profitability and seasoning requirements, delaying inclusion for newly public companies.

• This divergence means high-profile IPOs may influence some indices within days of listing, while their inclusion in others will occur with a lag. 

Publicly available shares for these IPOs should grow gradually over time as lockups expire

•  Despite large headline valuations, these IPOs are expected to debut with unusually low public float, limiting the number of shares available for trading at listing.

• Historical patterns suggest float increases gradually over time as lockups expire and insider-held shares enter the market, resulting in an initial market impact that may be constrained, with broader influence building more slowly as liquidity improves. 

These IPOs should grow to a moderate share of broad equity indices as lockups of pre-held shares expire

•  Despite their scale, these IPOs are unlikely to materially reshape index composition in the near term, as float-adjusted methodologies and limited initial share availability constrain their early footprint.

• Index representation should grow as lockups expire and tradable shares increase, although price fluctuation could also be an overlaying factor in either direction.