--- title: Midterm Election Preview description: As voters head to the polls this week, attention is shifting to what the outcome could mean for the policy outlook. How should investors think through the implications of various midterm election outcomes? image: https://info.glenmede.com/hubfs/GLM%20Assets/IS%20Brief%20Bull%20Bear.jpg --- [![GLENMEDE](https://info.glenmede.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Glenmede_September2023/images/dark-logo.svg "GLENMEDE")](https://www.glenmede.com/) - [About Us](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/) - [Who We Are](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#who-we-are) - [Our History](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#our-history) - [The Board](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#the-board) - [Our People](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#our-leadership) - [Careers](https://www.glenmede.com/careers/) - A True Partnership - [Individuals & Families](https://www.glenmede.com/private-wealth-management/high-net-worth-individuals-and-families/) - [Family Office Services](https://www.glenmede.com/private-wealth-management/family-office-services/) - [Foundations](https://www.glenmede.com/endowments-foundations/foundation-investment-management/) - [Sustainable & Impact Investing](https://www.glenmede.com/sustainable-impact-overview/) - [Endowments](https://www.glenmede.com/endowments-foundations/endowment-foundation-management/) - [Financial Intermediaries](https://www.glenmedeim.com/) [![Contact Us](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/23579600/c4c39f23-46ff-492e-9f41-770fb4a0aeb5.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/23579600/c4c39f23-46ff-492e-9f41-770fb4a0aeb5) - [About Us](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/) - [Who We Are](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#who-we-are) - [Our History](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#our-history) - [The Board](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#the-board) - [Our People](https://www.glenmede.com/about-us/#our-leadership) - [Careers](https://www.glenmede.com/careers/) - A True Partnership - [Individuals & Families](https://www.glenmede.com/private-wealth-management/high-net-worth-individuals-and-families/) - [Family Office Services](https://www.glenmede.com/private-wealth-management/family-office-services/) - [Foundations](https://www.glenmede.com/endowments-foundations/foundation-investment-management/) - [Sustainable & Impact Investing](https://www.glenmede.com/sustainable-impact-overview/) - [Endowments](https://www.glenmede.com/endowments-foundations/endowment-foundation-management/) - [Financial Intermediaries](https://www.glenmedeim.com/) [![Contact Us](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/23579600/c4c39f23-46ff-492e-9f41-770fb4a0aeb5.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/23579600/c4c39f23-46ff-492e-9f41-770fb4a0aeb5) #### Contact Us # Investment Strategy Brief   |   November 1, 2026 Midterm Election Preview   ![IS Brief Bull Bear](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/GLM%20Assets/IS%20Brief%20Bull%20Bear.jpg?width=550&height=314&name=IS%20Brief%20Bull%20Bear.jpg "IS Brief Bull Bear") ### Executive Summary - Markets are pricing in a shift in congressional control as the base case midterm election outcome. - A broad range of issues are shaping voters’ opinions, with the economy a top priority. - A more energetic executive branch post-election could play a greater role in shaping the policy agenda over the next two years. - Policies tend to be more measured during periods of divided government, supporting market performance. - Following the midterm elections, greater clarity around the policy agenda for the next two years should begin to emerge. ### **The balance of power remains up for grabs, with close races likely to determine the outcome** ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 1](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%201.png?width=1000&height=483&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%201.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 1") Shown on the left are current race projections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Competitive races includes both races that lean Democratic or Republican as well as toss up races as rated by the Cook Political Report. Shown on the right are the numbers of seats in the House of Representatives gained or lost by the incumbent party in each midterm election since 1942. Blue bars indicate elections in which Democrats held the White House, while red bars indicate elections in which Republicans held the White House. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. The data shown are not the opinions of Glenmede and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - As voters head to the polls on Tuesday, control of Congress remains up for grabs with a relatively narrow set of races poised to determine the balance of power in Washington. - History suggests the president’s party often faces an uphill battle in midterm elections, losing House seats in 19 of the last 21 elections. ### **A broad set of issues are top of mind for voters, with the economy ranking highest** ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 2](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%202.png?width=1000&height=484&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%202.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 2") Shown is the share of registered voters who say each issue is “very important” to their vote in the 2026 midterm elections, based on a Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted September 28 to October 4, 2026. Selected issues are shown from the 16 included in the survey; “Climate Policy” refers to the survey’s “environment and climate policy” item. Results reflect the opinions of all registered voters, many of whom may not vote in November, and are subject to sampling error. Views shown are those of survey respondents and are not the opinions of Glenmede. Survey data are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as a forecast of election outcomes. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - Economic concerns remain the dominant issue for voters, with more than eight in ten identifying the economy as very important to their midterm vote. - Still, the election is likely to be shaped by a broad set of concerns, with several political and social issues also ranking highly among voters. ### Markets are pricing in shifting congressional control as the base case for the midterm election ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 3](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%203.png?width=1000&height=471&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%203.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 3") Shown are market-based odds of party control of both chambers of Congress after the results of the 2026 midterm elections via Polymarket. Polymarket is a prediction market where investors can place bets on various future events. Probabilities are based on market prices and may not sum to 100% due to rounding and the trading of each outcome as a separate contract. References to Polymarket and use of its data herein should in no way be interpreted as an endorsement or recommendation of Polymarket by Glenmede. Probabilities or likelihoods shown are not the opinions of Glenmede. Prediction market data are shown for illustrative purposes only, may have low trading volume, and should not be relied upon as a forecast of actual outcomes. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - Market expectations have moved meaningfully over the past few months as investors have continually reassessed the likely balance of power following the midterms. - With Election Day approaching, expectations have increasingly converged around a Democrat sweep, which would functionally mean divided government paired with a Republican president. ### **Government policies will likely take different directions under each election outcome** ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 4](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%204.png?width=1000&height=489&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%204.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 4") Shown is a qualitative assessment of the policy areas most likely to be prioritized under each election outcome, based on the composition of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives after the election. NIH refers to the National Institutes of Health and SNAP refers to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. Actual policy results may differ materially from expectations or projections. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - With control of Congress hanging in the balance, the midterm outcome could meaningfully shape the policy agenda over the next two years. - A Democratic sweep could bring greater focus to healthcare, clean energy incentives, and measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures. - Split control of Congress may narrow the scope for major legislation and place greater emphasis on areas with potential bipartisan support, while a Republican sweep could see an emphasis on defense spending and energy permitting reform. - Regardless of the congressional outcome, the White House retains latitude on trade, immigration, foreign policy, and deregulation through executive action. **The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since at least 1942** ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 5](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%205.png?width=1000&height=503&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%205.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 5") Shown is the S&P 500 price return over the 12-month period following each midterm election from 1942 to 2022. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large cap stocks in the U.S. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - Midterm elections have historically been followed by positive equity market performance, with the S&P 500 posting a positive return after every midterm election shown since 1942. - Once election uncertainty clears, greater visibility into the political and policy landscape has historically coincided with a more favorable backdrop for equities. **Markets have historically performed best following more balanced election outcomes** ![IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 6](https://info.glenmede.com/hs-fs/hubfs/IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%206.png?width=1000&height=481&name=IS%20Brief%202026-11-02%20Chart%206.png "IS Brief 2026-11-02 Chart 6") Shown are returns based on the composition of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives after each two-year election cycle. Divided refers to periods in which no single party controls all three, Strong Sweep refers to periods in which one party controls all three and has a large enough majority in the Senate to end a filibuster via cloture, and Weak Sweep refers to all other periods in which one party controls all three. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large cap stocks in the U.S. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. Glenmede strives for a nonpartisan approach to its election coverage. - Election outcomes can affect markets not only through which party holds power, but also through the degree of control that party has over the legislative agenda. - A strong Republican sweep appears unlikely, leaving a weak sweep if Republicans maintain control and divided government if Democrats gain at least one chamber of Congress. - Both outcomes would leave some degree of legislative constraint in place, potentially limiting significant shifts in fiscal, tax, and regulatory policy. Maintenance of some semblance of the status quo has historically been a favorable environment for equity markets. - Following the midterm elections, greater clarity around the policy agenda for the next two years should begin to emerge. For more in-depth information on this topic, please reach out to your Glenmede Relationship Manager. 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