Investment Strategy Brief
Q4 Earnings Season Preview
January 18, 2026
Executive Summary
- Q4 earnings season has kicked off with early results pointing to mid-single-digit growth.
- Earnings are expected to grow across the majority of sectors, with technology the biggest driver.
- The S&P 500 is expected to notch its tenth straight quarter of positive earnings growth.
- Earnings growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, led by broader domestic growth beyond large caps.
- Earnings continue to demonstrate strength heading into 2026, with the outlook pointing to broader fundamental improvements.
Q4 earnings season has kicked off with early results pointing to mid-single-digit growth
Shown on the left is a timeline of the cumulative share of the S&P 500’s market capitalization that have or will report Q4 2025 earnings results. Shown on the right is the progression of S&P 500 earnings per share estimates for Q4 2025 on a year-over-year change basis. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. One cannot invest directly in an index.
- Earnings season is underway, with several major banks reporting last week and many companies scheduled to report over the next two weeks.
- Expectations for Q4 earnings were revised lower early in 2025 amid shifts in U.S. trade policy and heightened uncertainty, resulting in more muted growth than pre-Liberation Day projections.
Earnings are expected to grow across the majority of sectors, with technology the biggest driver
Data shown are the blended growth rates in earnings per share for the S&P 500 and its 11 constituent sectors for Q4 2025 on a year-over-year, percent change basis. Blended growth figures combine actual results with consensus expectations for companies that have yet to report. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large cap stocks in the U.S. Actual results may differ materially from expectations. One cannot invest directly in an index.
- Most sectors are expected to deliver positive results this quarter, led by technology, materials, and communications, while consumer discretionary and energy are likely to lag.
- Exceptionally strong performance from the technology sector is likely to be a key driver, potentially lifting S&P 500 earnings growth into the high-single-digit range for the quarter.
The S&P 500 is expected to notch its tenth straight quarter of positive earnings growth
Data shown are quarterly earnings per share growth rates for the S&P 500 on a year-over-year percent change basis. Solid bars represent full results, and hashed bars represent partial results. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large cap stocks in the U.S. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index.
- Despite considerable uncertainty, S&P 500 earnings have continued their trend higher over recent quarters, reflecting improving profitability and resilient corporate fundamentals.
- If current trends persist, the index is on track to record its longest streak of positive earnings growth since mid-2016 through 2018.
Earnings growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, led by broader domestic growth beyond large caps
Data shown are annual earnings per share growth rates on a year-over-year percent change basis. Asset classes are represented by the following: Large Cap (S&P 500), Small/Mid Cap (Russell 2500), International Developed (MSCI EAFE), International Emerging (MSCI EM). Actual results may differ materially from expectations. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index.
- After a strong year for earnings in 2025, that momentum is expected to carry forward into 2026 for most major equity asset classes.
- Headlining that fundamental optimism for 2026 is the expectation that earnings growth in the U.S. will broaden out materially beyond large cap companies.
For more in-depth information on this topic, please reach out to your Glenmede Relationship Manager.
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