Investment Strategy Brief
Venezuela Shakes Headlines, Not Markets
January 11, 2026
Executive Summary
- The U.S. removed Nicolas Maduro from power, which could have geopolitical and energy market implications.
- U.S. involvement in Venezuela is economically significant given the country’s outsized share of global oil reserves.
- Sanctions have constrained Venezuela’s oil output, but a near-term return to 2016 production levels is unlikely.
- Equity markets have a long history of resilience despite major geopolitical events and downturns.
- U.S. actions in Venezuela are likely to have a muted effect on markets but may have a long-run impact on global oil supply.
The U.S. removed Maduro from power, which could have geopolitical and energy market implications
Shown on the left are market-based probabilities via Polymarket of when Nicolas Maduro will be removed from Venezuela. Polymarket is a prediction market where investors can place bets on various future events. References to Polymarket and use of its data herein should in no way be interpreted as an endorsement or recommendation of Polymarket by Glenmede. Probabilities or likelihoods shown are not the opinions of Glenmede and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Actual results my differ materially from probabilities shown, particularly for prediction markets with low trading volume.
- The U.S. military conducted an operation to arrest Venezuela’s Maduro on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges.
- In addition to geopolitical considerations, the move may also have economic implications, particularly as it pertains to global energy supplies.
U.S. involvement in Venezuela is significant given the country's outsized share of global oil reserves
The top ten countries by reported are shaded in blue commensurate with the amount of reported crude oil reserves. All other countries outside of the top ten are shaded gray.
- According to official reports, Venezuela has the world’s largest crude oil reserves at ~300 billion barrels.
- Some have cast doubt on those self-reported figures; while the numbers themselves are possibly inflated, it is still noteworthy that a significant share of global reserves are now under U.S. influence.
Sanctions have constrained Venezuela's oil output, but a near-term return to 2016 production levels is unlikely
Shown are monthly crude oil production figures for Venezuela, measured in thousands of barrels.
- U.S. sanctions, operational degradation, and an exodus of technical expertise impaired Venezuela’s production capacity over the last decade.
- While production may drift higher due to sanctions relief, a rapid return to pre-2016 production levels is unlikely due to structural constraints and infrastructure decay.
Equity markets have a long history of resilience despite major geopolitical events and downturns
Data represent the growth of $1 invested in U.S. large cap stocks at the beginning of 1940 with dividends reinvested, represented by the S&P 500 from 1970 to present and returns from Robert Shiller for periods prior. Callout text refers to major economic and geopolitical events over the timeframe. LTCM refers to the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index.
- From a broader historical perspective, U.S. equity markets have typically looked through major geopolitical events, demonstrating long-term resilience.
- Market drawdowns associated with macroeconomic or geopolitical disruptions have generally been temporary, underscoring the importance of maintaining a long-term investment horizon rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
For more in-depth information on this topic, please reach out to your Glenmede Relationship Manager.
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